Pakistan Politics: A Method in Madness

Pakistan Politics: A Method in Madness

Nawaz Sharif's electoral victory did not come as a surprise. From the political pundits to the ordinary paanwalas, everyone knew that the Pakistan Muslim League (N) would come to power after the February 3 elections. It did not need any clairvoyance to arrive at this conclusion. Anyone who has been watching the chronically turbulent Pakistani polity in general, and the game of musical chairs that it has been reduced to lately in particular, knows that the establishment does not take the drastic step of deposing an elected Prime Minister only to allow him or her to stage a comeback within 90 days. It is not very difficult to discern a method in the apparent madness of dismissal of one government and installation of another. Benazir Bhutto was elected in December  (1988 ) and dismissed in April 1990; Nawaz Sharif was elected in November ( 1990 ) and dismissed in April 1993; Benazir was re-elected in October ( 1993 ) and dismissed in November 1997; Nawaz Sharif was re-elected last week and no one can tell, not even President Farooq Ahmad Leghari how long will he last.

It may seem unbelievable but it is true that despite winning such a massive mandate the survival of the Prime Minister-elect depends largely on the pleasure/ discretion of the establishment. Therefore, the ongoing speculation in a section of the media that Mr. Sharif may use his party's unassailable position in the National Assembly to curtail the unbridled power of over-ambitious President and the Chief of Army Staff appears to be mere wishful thinking. There are a number of reasons why one feels that Sharif will not embark on any such foolhardy adventurism. First, Nawaz Sharif has always been the blue-eyed boy of the ruling elite. In fact his transformation from a businessman to a politician was made possible chiefly because he was a protege of Gen. Zia-ul Haque, undoubtedly one of the most powerful icon of the establishment. 

It was the establishment that had groomed Sharif to lead a multi-party electoral alliance called Islami Jamhoori Ittehad to defeat Benazir in the elections that followed her first dismissal. Sharif was deposed because he  committed the fatal mistake of rubbing the President the wrong way. He had the solace of having his prime ministership restored by the Supreme Court but was forced to resign by the combined machinations of the Army and the President, once again proving the supremacy of the establishment over all other institutions even the highest court of the land.

Although five elected governments have been terminated by the use or abuse of the dreaded Eighth Amendment in the past 11 years, no party has made any serious attempt at removing this Damocles' sword from the Constitution. Although all parties are unanimous that it is a serious impediment in the democratic process, none has so far, dared to do any thing about it. The party whose government is dismissed goes on a war path against the Eighth Amendment, launches movement, issues bellicose statements, declares to delete it if elected again. But when the same party was in the opposition and the government of its adversary party was dismissed, the former had supported the use of this Amendment had even called it an indispensable instrument for the protection of national security.

After Gen. Zia's death in the mysterious plane crash when Benazir Bhutto came to power following general elections in Pakistan, people were relieved at the termination of the long army dictatorship and restoration of democracy. But in reality, democracy has never been allowed to flourish in our neighbouring state. Previously it was trampled by the heavy boots of power-hungry generals who merrily imposed martial laws. But after Gen. Zia's death, the Army decided to keep a low profile because of the growing aversion in the West in general and in Washington in particular to military regimes. Don't for a moment think the Army suddenly lost every interest in sharing the power. It merely changed its tactics. Now it pulls the strings from behind the scene through a plaint President.

But to be fair to the much-maligned Army, the politicians too have contributed in undermining the democratic process in the country. Neither Sharif nor Benazir, the principal protagonists on the political centrestage has any respect for either the parliamentary democracy or the verdict of the people. From the day, one of them takes oath of office, the other kicks up a shindy Benazir's persistent refusal to accept her defeat gracefully even in the face of conclusive and unanimous opinion of foreign observers that the February 3 elections were virtually the fairest in Pakistan's 50 year long history, is symptomatic of the intolerant and undemocratic streak that runs in the politicians.

Ms. Bhutto loves to project herself as the most ardent champion of democracy, zealously crusading to keep it free from the vile stranglehold of both military despots and bigoted mullahs. However, her democratic convictions are only skin-deep. Beneath the seductive visage of a liberal upholder of democracy lurks the ugly face of an intolerant, power-crazy autocrat. During both of her terms, Benazir's style of functioning was not exactly that of an ardent champion of democracy. When she was in power at the Centre, she adopted absolutely unfair, patently illegitimate and blatantly undemocratic and even unconstitutional methods for dismissing democratically elected provincial governments merely because they were not PPP governments. This kind of intolerance for dissent and opposition is characteristic of a feudal mind-set. The entrenched feudal system is one of the most important reasons why democratic system has not yet been able to take firm roots in the soil of Pakistan. 

In India, one factor that contributed immensely in the growth and development of a healthy democratic process was the elimination of the feudal system and introduction of land reforms after the Independence. In Pakistan, on the other hand, the old oppressive order still prevails and in order to continue its hegemony over the masses, it has kept the political and electoral process under its thumbs. Even after 50 years of its creation, a handful of rich feudal lords locally called waderas are the supreme authority on whose orders the entire village votes in support of or against a particular party or candidate.

Unless this anachronistic system is changed, unless the emancipation and empowerment of the deprived and the depressed classes take place and unless the masses are allowed to elect their true representatives, real democracy will remain a mirage in Pakistan. Nawaz Sharifs enormous victory gives some hope that the new government in Islamabad will be a stable government that will comfortably complete its term. Given his two-third majority and the virtual decimation of the opposition. Sharif will be able to implement his poll manifestos without facing any pressures. But as I have said above it will be highly optimistic to think that the Prime Minister-elect will find enough courage to take on the establishment.

In any case, the wily establishment has already legitimised its illegitimate hold over the Parliament by floating a Defence and National Security Council a month ago. This extra-constitutional organisation is supposed to “advise” the Prime Minister but in reality it will “monitor” his functioning. As long as Nawaz Sharif is willing to play ball with it, he will survive. The moment he refuses to come to terms with it, his term will arbitrarily be cut-short. And in case, the Prime Minister is toying with the ideal of forcing through a legislation to repeal the Eighth Amendment, he should remember that establishment can always resort to its last weapon: coup d'etat.